Course · Intermediate - Probability for Allocation Decisions

Learning outcomes

• Distinguish a forecast from a calibrated probability
• Build scenario weights without hiding assumptions
• Evaluate whether a probability estimate improves a decision
• Communicate uncertainty in an allocation memo

Probability is useful when it clarifies a decision rather than pretending to remove uncertainty.

What the module covers

• Base rates, conditional probabilities and calibration
• Scenario design and probability-weighted outcomes
• Decision rules under uncertainty
• Clear visual and written communication of uncertainty